

ECONOMIC FORCES
The economic forces are one of the most important factors of the external audit; these factors help organizations to determine its strengths, weaknesses and competitiveness in the environment in which they operates. These forces affect directly the organizations as the factors changed through the time and this make businesses changed their mains plans or objectives in order to adapt quickly to its environment.
SHIFT TO A SERVICE ECONOMY IN COLOMBIA:
During the last years, it has been noticed that even though Colombia is a country where activities such as agriculture and cattle raising seem to be very important, the service sector has grown in percentage of impact in the country’s economy. A study from Jose Guillermo Garcia, teacher from Universidad Nacional reflected the next results:
And with the data base from the World Bank, we can see a graph that reflects services in percentage of GDP:
With this it can be concluded that services might have a little decline, but since 2012 the tendency has been a grow one, and additionally it can be said that the service sector has always have a greater impact in GDP than the other sectors, making Colombia a country where the industry in services has a very important role in its economy.
Cubillos Murcia, N. (2012, Mayo 28). "En Colombia el sector servicios creció de forma desproporcionada": García. La República, p. 30. Retrieved August 16, 2015, from http://www.cid.unal.edu.co/cidnews/components/com_fcecidprensa/gallery/uploads/En_Colombia_el_sector-Mayo_28.pdf
World Bank. (n.d.). Services, etc., value added (% of GDP). Retrieved August 16, 2015, from World Bank Data: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.SRV.TETC.ZS/countries/CO?display=graph
AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT:
The next chart, elaborated by the World Bank shows the domestic credit provided by financial sector in percentage of GDP, which remarks how financial institutions in our country provide credit:
As shown, the percentage of domestic credit provided for 2014 was of 71.1%. Comparing to the last 10 years it is evident that the financial sector has decided to increase the amount of credit they are willing to offer, giving the opportunity to more people to find out a credit that can suit their needs in something they desire. This must be taken into account because in our industry it means that as a company that is just starting, the chance to get a credit for the needs that will appear is big, due to the fact that it can be really possible to obtain a kind of credit. It also implicates a study in customers, which will have the ability to obtain as well a credit if they do not have the resources to pay right now for a service in this industry.
World Bank. (n.d.). Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP). Retrieved August 13, 2015, from World Bank Data: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.DOMS.GD.ZS/countries/CO?display=graph
LEVEL OF DISPOSABLE INCOME:
The euromonitor international has a specific chart related to the amount of annual disposable income of Colombia in USD.
This relies on the assumption that each year, Colombians have a higher amount of disposable income which will give the possibility to spend much more on other thing rather than just save due to the fact that now there is more money left after paying taxes.
Euromonitor International. (2011, Mars 6). Colombia Country Factfile. Retrieved August 16, 2015, from Euromonitor International: http://www.euromonitor.com/colombia/country-factfile
PROPENSITY OF PEOPLE TO SPEND:
This variable can be seen also as the average of people to consume, which is the percentage of the income that is spent in goods and services rather than in savings. A study from the Comptroller General of Colombia gave the next results:
With this it can be concluded that people in Colombia are willing to spend more or less 80% of their total incomes, leaving only a 20% for savings. It means that whatever the industry is, there is a high amount of possibilities that people spend in the good or service.
Hernandez, M., Pinzon, J., & Ramos, M. A. (2008, January 30). Perspectivas del ahorro en Colombia. Retrieved from Contraloría General: http://www.contraloriagen.gov.co/documents/10136/16364875/Perspectivas+del+ahorro+en+Colombia.pdf/4fa48a54-5552-4c57-ae35-3b9e04cb4dda
INTEREST RATES:
A study from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank has led to the development of the next chart for the real percentage of interest rate in Colombia, calculated from the lending interest rate adjusted to inflation, measured by the GDP.
With this graph we can rely on the information that in 2014 there was an 8.9% of real interest rate. There have been ups and downs like the one in 2011, but since 2012 de percentage have a stabilized behavior leaving us to expect that maybe for the next years the percentage will be more or less like the one from the year before. This information shapes the way people are willing to take a credit due to its interest rates, in our industry either for starting the business or for a common person to ask for borrowed money.
Global Bank (n.d.). Real interest rate (%). Retrieved August 13, 2015, from World Bank Data: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FR.INR.RINR/countries/CO?display=graph
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICITS:
The federal budget deficit is the misuse of resources and the money used in transactions is greater than income. The fiscal deficit exists when an amount is compared and this is lower than others, that is, when the state spends more than it receives (Rodríguez, 1995). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Colombia is a country with a framework of sound fiscal policy, but it is recommended that the country generates a new tax reform; and thereby increase tax revenue, and thus meet the government's target of Colombia to reduce the structural deficit. Therefore, by 2015 it is estimated that the projection of government and "Calculations have given us, will occur with lower oil prices, the deficit will be between two and three million pesos ($ 870 million to US $ $ 1.3 million) more than expected, "said Andres Pardo, chief economist at Corficolombiana, (Elespectador.com, 2014).
For that reason, the government plans to take restrictive policies to raise taxes and the effect of this policy on the economy is reflected especially in the trend of rising prices of all products and services (inflationary pressures), and this hurts individuals and businesses. In our project will not be taken yet into account, since the budget deficit of the federal government, which is not very relevant, although this affects us all, the industry will not be affected directly or not at a very high level, the industry will continue to work normally and can continue in the Colombian market.
CONSUMPTION PATERNS:
Consumption patterns are consumer trends, for example preferences are changing and emerging needs of the consumer, the consumption patterns are those preferences that the consumer demands or requires, these are constantly changing due to taste buyers (Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y desarrollo Territorial, 2011). Consumption patterns in Colombia increased production is evident, this is because it increases the GDP, and this is a vital factor in the economy due to the increase in gross domestic product is related to the productivity of a country, hence productivity and increases the consumption activities. As consumption is driven by consumption patterns (consumer preferences) in Colombia vary somewhat, customers constantly change their ideals and consume different products or services based on many factors.
VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IN WORLD MARKETS:
As all of us know, the dollar price in the world it’s been rising constantly affecting global economy and Colombian economy is not the exception. On the contrary, Colombian economy has suffered big changes starting with the great devaluation of the Colombian peso which has lowered 17,53% and keeps going down thanks to the strengthening of the dollar and the low prices of the Colombian petroleum which as stated by José Davíd López economic analyst of consulting and investment, is the principal strength of Colombian economy, even though Colombia is not an oil country.
IMPORT/EXPORT FACTORS:
As stated by ElTiempo.com, and Banco de la República, the country is experiencing a very risky change on its import/export rates, meaning this that the import rates are growing greatly while the export rates are going down which according to the BanRep could affect in a very bad way all the Colombian industries because having more foreign products in the country means more competition and less support to the Colombian industry.
Another factor pointed by the Banrep, was the fact that the strongest Colombian exportations are the petroleum and the coal, unfortunately the price of this resources is very low nowadays meaning a very weak export economy and rising import rates.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:
In Latin America, many countries have been growing economically, however, as stated by coyunturaeconomica.com the countries with the best growing economy and the most attractive for international investors and foreigners trying to go somewhere good for working or living are Panamá, Chile, Peru, Brazil and Argentina. Colombia on the other hand, is not among the best but is not among the worst; Colombia has been growing but slower than many other neighboring countries, meaning that tourists, workers, investors and people looking for good countries to live, prefer other options rather than Colombia which according to cesla.com its having a hard start for the year 2015 because of the strong peso devaluation.
Nevertheless, is important to take into account that there are several other countries behind the Colombian economy, in which people often see Colombia as a good place for living or visiting; that is the case of Ecuador and Venezuela.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
GDP: 378.4 billion USD (2013)
Colombia, Gross domestic product
This GDP show us the level of growth of an economy. If it increases we can say people are in good economic situation, that’s why the bigger the GDP is in a country the better for our industry.
CIA. (s.f.). CIA. Recuperado el 20 de AGOSTO de 2015, de THE WORLD FACTBOOK: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/co.html
WORLD BANK. (s.f.). Obtenido de http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/colombia
WORKER PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS:
Colombia is a country with one of the lowest percentage in productivity with US$25.000 per worker per year. This means Colombian workers are not that productive as 4,5 Colombian workers are required to do the same activity as does one y the USA. This will be a negative factor in our industry as productivity will not be as higher as the organization wants to be.
Gómez, L. E. ( 29 de enero de 2015). LA REPUBLICA . Obtenido de Los trabajadores colombianos están entre los menos productivos de toda la región: http://www.larepublica.co/los-trabajadores-colombianos-est%C3%A1n-entre-los-menos-productivos-de-toda-la-regi%C3%B3n_214356
MANCHEGO, M. M. (27 de septiembre de 2014). EL TIEMPO. Obtenido de Los colombianos trabajan mucho, pero les rinde poco: http://www.eltiempo.com/economia/sectores/baja-productividad-en-colombia-/14603116
INFLATION RATES:
4.46% in 2015
In Colombia there is a 4.46% of inflation rate which means that each time this percentage continue increasing there will be less accessibility to a product or service as prices go up. This rate will not benefit our industry as people will not invest or buy our service if our prices are too high.
FOCUS ECONOMICS. (s.f.). Recuperado el 18 de AGOSTO de 2015, de Colombia - Inflation: https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/colombia/inflation
TRADING ECONOMICS. (1955-2015). Obtenido de Colombia Inflation Rate: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/inflation-cpi
UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS:
In Colombia the unemployment rate is 9.7% which indicates the number of people without a job and actually looking for one. This will benefit our organization industry in some way as people will be looking for a job and we will have plenty of people we can hire.
Fund, I. M. (ABRIL de 2015). INDEX MUNDI. Obtenido de Colombia Unemployment rate: http://www.indexmundi.com/colombia/unemployment_rate.html
TRADING ECONOMICS. (2001-2015). Recuperado el 19 de AGOSTO de 2015, de Colombia Unemployment Rate : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/unemployment-rate
DEMAND SHIFTS FOR DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF GOODS AND SERVICES:
In all industries, price is one of the most important shifts that affect the demand of goods and services. That said, the industry of dog care is not the exception. In Bogotá, dog care companies and veterinaries offer different prices to take care of people’s dogs on weekends or just for the day. These prices vary between $20.000 and $30.000 pesos a night. These companies of dog care include if the customer wants, veterinary packages and school for dogs which is also a factor that determine the demand a company will have. The preferences of the customer is a shift that affect the demand of all goods and services, as in the dog care, customers look for: loving dog watchers, open and comfortable facilities, 24 hour veterinary care, safe door to door transportation, between others.
Therefore, another important factor that determine the demands shifts for all industries, including the dog care industry, is the income of the consumers. For this industry in specific, the target are customers who´s income are relatively good since they have extra money to spend on their dog. In addition to the other demand shifts, there´s the changes in prices of the product. In the dog care industry, there are complementary goods and substitutes goods since some companies around Bogotá only offer the service of hotel or school and there are other veterinaries which are only dog´s hospitals.
(Grayson, Lee. What are the four factors that cause a shift in Demand? CHRON. HEARTS newspaper. Recovered: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/four-factors-cause-shift-demand-56212.html)
(PRESEVE ARTICLES. 6 important factors that determines changes in Demand. Recovered: http://www.preservearticles.com/201105287208/factors-that-determines-changes-in-demand.html)
-DOVER: Veterinary and daycare services $25.000 pesos a night/ $29.000 pesos if they need medicine. Dog´s school 2 days $270.000 pesos, 3 days $370.000 or 5 days $500.000 pesos. http://dover.com.co/servicios-clinicos/complementarios/hotel-y-colegio/
-SALUD ANIMAL: Veterinary 24 hours and daycare $20.000 pesos a night. No school. http://www.clinicaveterinariasaludanimal.co/nuestros-servicios/
-GUARDERIA HOTEL PARA PERROS CAMPESTRE FRANCISCANES: No veterinary only day care $30.000 a night. http://www.connectmydog.com/guarderia-hotel-perros
-HOTEL GUARDERIA PARA PERROS EN TENJO: No veterinary only day care $25.000 a night. Transportation of the dog depending on location. http://www.connectmydog.com/guarderia-hotel-perros
-PETS CLUB: Day care $120.000 the weekend, with holiday $150.000 pesos. Door to door transportation. http://www.petsclub.co/#!servicios/cyu0
-VILLA MASCOTAS: all prices available on webpage and possibility of packages. http://www.villamascotas.co/index.php/planes
INCOME DIFFERENCES BY REGION AND CONSUMER GROUPS:
Colombia is a country were income differences by region and consumer groups (social strata) are very different, and that is a key economic variable that every industry should be aware of since they have to stablish prices and strategies to a special target. For the purpose of Doggy Buddy, the social strata that we will mention are from Bogotá. In Bogotá, the people who lived in strata 1 are very poor and most of the times they are conformed by big families. These families lack of some basic services as energy, gas, sewerage, and others. These families don’t earn the sufficient money sometimes to survive, therefore they are not the target dog care´s companies have. Families who lived in social strata 2 and 3 also belongs to this group.
On the other side, families who live in strata 5 and 6 have all the basic services, abundant food, they own a car at least, their kid’s school is expensive, etc. This group of people have the greatest income salary of Bogotá. Also, families who live in social strata 4 have good incomes but less than in 5 or 6. According to this, families who have the greater incomes (5 and 6) are the ones dog care company’s targets and they are their regular customers. This is a very important economic variable since all companies in this case dog care companies, should be aware of all details of their targets to reach them more precisely.
DANE. Preguntas frecuentes estratificación. Recovered: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/geoestadistica/Preguntas_frecuentes_estratificacion.pdf
FINANZAS PERSONALES.COM.CO. ¿Qué tanto cuesta vivir en estrato uno y en estrato 6? Recovered: http://www.finanzaspersonales.com.co/consumo-inteligente/articulo/la-diferencia-economica-vivir-estrato-seis/55110
PRICE FLUCTUATIONS:
Price fluctuations is an economic variable that affects all industries in which companies operates. There are some price fluctuations like the price of the crude oil or the dollar that affect Colombia directly. Also, there are price fluctuations in commodities that affect all industries as is the case of a dog´s care company. This variable is important since if our business needs some supplies from a foreign country as United States, this price fluctuations of the dollar can benefit (when is low) or can make things more expensive (when its high). For example a fall in the price of the crude oil affected Colombia´s economy by increasing all prices for consumers so they began consuming less. A graphic that shows how the crude oil prices have been decreasing is demonstrated next:
Graphic from: http://dolar.wilkinsonpc.com.co/petroleo-wti.html?periodo=90&year=2015 (August 2015)
The fluctuations of the consumer´s price index in the month of July didn’t vary too much comparing it to the months before. The annual growth rate of the consumer´s price index was of 4, 5%. Also as shown in the next table the fluctuation prices of food and beverages, housing, transportation, etc. that affect directly dog care companies, have risen from 2013 to 2014:
Extracted from: datosmacro July 2015. http://www.datosmacro.com/ipc-paises/colombia
EXPORT OF LABOR AND CAPITAL FROM COLOMBIA:
As stated in an article published in PROCOLOMBIA, the investment of Colombian’s capital between 2010 and 2014 were on Central America. Between these years, Colombia invested a big part of its capital US$7.353 million all around Central America from a total foreign investment of US$24.845 million). Companies and markets in Central America are becoming appealing to invest on because they are stable and have good future projections. This made that the rate investment of Colombian entrepreneurs increase in an annual average of 29% (PROCOLOMBIA, May 13/2015). This economic variable of Colombia exporting its capital to foreign countries have some advantages to the country´s economy providing advantages too to the dog care industry. The relations between Colombia and more countries brings benefits as possibilities of expansion, exchanges of technology, improvement of the economy, etc.
PROCOLOMBIA. (13 de May de 2015). PROCOLOMBIA. Recuperado el 16 de August de 2015, de http://www.colombiainvierte.com.co/noticias-documentos/tercera-parte-de-la-inversion-de-colombia-en-el-exterior-se-dirigio-centro
The migration of families is due to different factor such as: possibilities of better jobs and salaries in foreign countries, better educational level in foreign countries, quality of life, political factors, etc. The net migration rate is “-0.64 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2015 est.)” (Central Intelligence Agency. 2015). This economic variable is important for all industries in Colombia and in all countries since it generates a reduction of labor in the country. Despite of the migration rate in Colombia, there´s also foreign people coming to the country searching for working opportunities.
Central Inteligence Agence. (s.f.). The World Factbook. Recuperado el 14 de August de 2015, de CIA: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/co.html
MONETARY POLICIES:
In Colombia the Banco de la República it’s in charge of the monetary policy of the country with the goal of mantaining price stability and cautiosly observing the behavior and projections of the economic activity, in addtion the inflation of the country. It manages inflation targeting through interest rates. The central bank’s inflation target for 2015 stood at 2.0-4.0%. Between April and August 2014, the BCC raised its key interest rate by 125 basis points to 4.5% to contain inflation.
These studies are a great importance for our industry because the industry needs stable process to afford all the goods needed to every company functioning. At the same time inflation affect prices, and also affect the industry acquire of goods and its economy, that’s why monetary policies are important because they supervise all the economic movements as inflation that can affect directly the industry.
TAX RATES:
In Colombia According to Doing Business 2015, the total tax rate as a percentage of total profits reached 75.4%, comparing it to the OECD (41.3%) and the Latin American region (48.3%) the tax is considerably higher. This is due to Colombia’s high labor taxes and contributions, and to numerous other taxes including a financial transactions tax, a tax on industrial and commercial activity, and a real estate tax, according to the same source. Also we can see the Colombia’s corporate income tax rate stands at 25.0%.
This is a great importance for our industry because the high total tax rates are the ones that pull the competitiveness between the companies of this Industry. It also can affect the gains of all the industry because if the taxes are elevated the gains will be lower if the tax rate continue growing.
FISCAL POLICIES:
Colombia is becoming one of the strongest economies in Latin America due to improved fiscal policies infrastructure, this are known as major components of the economy. The Colombian’s economy has been growing between 2009-2014 because of the believable fiscal and inflation targeting policies. Thanks to this is the fastest growing economy in Latin America and also the fourth largest economy in the region. With a total GDP of COP756 trillion (US$378 billion) in 2014.
This is critical important in the industry because fiscal policies in Colombia are the ones that keep the economy in right direction by increasing and decreasing the demand of good and services of the country. If the national economy isn’t stable it will affect the economic stability of our industry. Additionally fiscal policies in Colombia are the ones that can motivate investment and it also can help create new jobs.
ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES (OPEC) POLICIES:
The OPEC is the one in charge of establishing and unifying the petroleum policies of the member countries and also guaranty the stabilization of oil market and the prices. Eliminating unnecessary fluctuations that will affect other countries. It also wants to provide an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to every consuming nation.
This is of great importance to our industry because when the prices of petroleum rice’s, it also can affect the prices of gasoline. At the same time it can affect the prices in distribution and goods that are provided in the industry for their well-functioning.
In this year 2015 foreign investment in Colombia has decreased 94%, in particularly do to the oil’s sector decrease in capital. The fall of the oil was of 26%, also explained for the drop of 23% of the investment in this sector.
http://www.centralamericalink.com/es/Noticias/Por_el_petroleo_inversion_extranjera_baja_en_Colombia/
ANALYSIS/CONCLUSIONS:
In conclusion, for a company to penetrate an industry needs to asses key economic variables and analyze how they will affect them and plan strategies and objectives to be proactive and prevent future difficulties. As being part of the dog care industry, it was important to research about “shift to a service economy in Colombia” since we found out that this service sector is growing up each year and this impact positively the GDP, which affects all type of industries. Continuing, we found out the importance of “Availability of credit” since this variable is raising which means there are more possibilities for the economic foundation as we have greater amount of credit for Doggy Buddy. Moreover, another important variable was “Level of disposable income” which affects our industry as the annual disposable income of people is rising up which means they have more money to spend in our company.
In addition to the last variables, we also took into account “Propensity of people to spend” and we figure out that this variable benefit us in the way that Colombians spend in goods and services almost 80% of their income which means they can use the service we provide. Besides, “interest rates” has been more stable the latest years causing that people will ask for more credit and the credit we can obtain to star the company will have interest rates not too variable. Also, a key economic variable is “Federal government budget deficits” because this variable will cause that the government plan to rise or decrease prices of all products and services. This affect us directly as we will have to rise our prices since our supplies will be more expensive too. “Consumption patterns” may increase production and this increases the GDP and this benefits all industries so before entering the market our industry needs to see how this variable is.
Continuing, the “value of the dollar in world markets” affects all industries of all the world and dog care industries are not the exception. This actual rise of the dollar is lowering the petroleum´s price in Colombia and relates to the variable “Import/export factors”, which because of the price of the dollar, imports are increasing and exports are decreasing. This means more foreign products are entering and more possible competition for our industry. “Foreign countries economic conditions” relates to the variable “export of labor and capital from Colombia” in the way that the Colombian capital is invested in the last years in countries from central and Latin America because of their good economic situations. This affects our industry in the way it affect positively Colombian economy. Also, the export of labor is a factor that affect us since if people migrate there will be less labor availability in Colombia.
Other variables to analyze are “gross domestic product” and “inflation rates”. This two variables affect our industry in the sense that a good GDP means Colombians will count with a good economic situation so more money to spend and the inflation rates if it decreases will cause more accessibility to products and services. If we want our business to be effective and efficient, we need committed and productive workers which the variable “worker productivity levels” show that Colombian workers are not. In “unemployment trends” we examine that if the rate of unemployment is high there will be more options of workers to hire and help decreasing the unemployment. “Demand shifts for different categories of goods and services” make our company to have competitive prices and a complete service since there is a high competition in the industry. “Income differences by region and consumer groups” is a key economic variable that all industries most analyze since by doing it they will have more information of the target they are going to have. Finally, “price fluctuations” make that prices of goods and services change according to the country´s economy and this affect all companies.
The last key economic variables will be mention ahead. “Monetary policies”, affects all industries as they all need a stable process to afford goods and services. Also, the “tax rates” are the ones that pull the competitiveness between the companies so it’s a variable that we need to be aware of. “Fiscal policies”, keep the economy in right direction by increasing and decreasing the demand of goods and services. Finally, the key variable “organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) policies” is important because when the prices of petroleum rice´s affect price of gasoline.
Some variables we didn’t include in our analysis were: “Money market rates”, “Stock market trends” and “European Economic Community (ECC) policies”. We didn’t include the second one since we are a local company interest in the dog care service and we do not pretend to buy stocks or put stocks to sell. In the third variable mention, as you can see is a variable that involve Europe and we don’t pretend to expand to Europe so this fluctuations in the variable doesn’t affect us. Finally, in the first variable “Money market rates”, we didn’t include it because as being a company of dog care, we don’t need to trade instruments.
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Pets Club S.A.S. (2010). Obtenido de http://www.petsclub.co/#!servicios/cyu0
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